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Demand Forecast (SO99+ Demand)

For forecast process owners who need a reliable forecast, despite demand volatility

Dealing with Random, Variable and Intermittent Demand

To make smart operational decisions, you need reliable forecasts. But if you are like many companies, you are dealing with a lot of random, variable and intermittent demand. You can’t get the forecast accuracy you need to manage and respond properly. And the process of translating your aggregated sales forecast into an operational supply chain forecast at the customer (Item- Location) level can be onerous and time-consuming.

You need a major improvement in forecast reliability. Incremental improvements just aren’t good enough. You need to produce accurate and reliable forecasts at the customer level that your account managers and supply chain planners really trust to improve their processes and outcomes.

Addressing Intermittent and Unpredictable Demand

ToolsGroup’s Demand Forecasting goes well beyond a standard time-series to automatically model bottom-up demand for individual products/SKUs in great detail. By analyzing order-lines, it models both historical demand quantities and demand frequency to provide a much clearer view of volatility. For instance, it understands the difference between a bulk order of 12 units and selling that same product individually 12 times.

It expertly handles intermittent “long tail” demand for slower moving products that are inherently harder to forecast. It understands volatility drivers, both market (trends, seasonality, causal factors and lumpiness) and organizational (demand shaping promotions, new products, forecast bias and the bullwhip effect). And it’s both highly automated and uses readily-available data.

Reliable Item-Location level forecasts

What does that mean for your business? An end to poor item-level forecasts. ToolsGroup’s Demand Forecasting creates a demand pull signal, significantly reducing forecast errors (e.g., MAPE). Many of our customers are achieving 85+% forecast accuracy at the DC level. And it creates a reliable demand plan to support the account planning and your S&OP process.

ToolsGroup’s Demand Forecasting also overcomes the disconnect between sales/marketing and the supply chain group by eliminating the forecast errors at the Item/Warehouse level. It automates the forecasting process at the level of granularity required for supply chain planning and execution.

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